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NFL Free Pick | Jaguars @ Vikings


The Jacksonville Jaguars can thank the New York Jets. If not for the Jets, the Jags would surely be the worst team in the NFL. The defense is terrible. The offense is down to a third or fourth quarterback.


After winning their season opener, Jacksonville has dropped 10 straight. Now, they head to Minnesota where they opened as 9.5-point underdogs. Don’t even think about trusting the Jags to cover. There is value elsewhere.

Game: Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10, 5-6 ATS) at Minnesota Vikings (5-6, 6-5 ATS)

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, December 6, 2020

Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota

America’s Bookie Current Line: MIN -10    Total: 52

TV Coverage: CBS

Bottom 5 Defense

The Jaguars defense has been a huge liability all season long. After that season-opening win over the Colts, Jacksonville gave up 30 or more points in six straight games. Since, they’ve given up 24 once and 27 three times. All four games, of course, were losses.

The Jags rank in the bottom five of the NFL in run defense, pass defense, total defense, and scoring defense where they yield 29.5 points per game. Teams don’t win a lot of games in the NFL when they are giving up over four touchdowns every week.

Miss last week’s action? No problem, check out NFL Week 12 by the numbers.

On the other side of the ball, the Jags offense has suffered since the loss of starting quarterback Gardner Minshew to a thumb injury. He will not start again this week. In his place, Mike Glennon will start his second consecutive game for the Jags. Glennon threw two touchdowns and no interceptions last week, but the Jags lost to Cleveland 27-25.

Vikings Trying to Make a Run

Minnesota, on the other hand, has won four of its last five games. The Vikings started the 2020 season slowly losing five of their first six games. Minnesota turned the tables on its season reeling off victories over all three NFC North opponents and then getting a fourth win over Carolina last week.

The Vikings are now 5-6 and are still in the running for a playoff berth. The team has done a great job offensively with RB Dalvin Cook leading the offense. Cook is second in the league in rushing with 1,130 yards. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has been solid the past five weeks and rookie wide receiver Justin Jefferson is coming into his own. He leads the team in receiving with 918 yards.

Editor’s Choice > Updated Super Bowl LV Futures

Where Minnesota is vulnerable is also on defense. The Vikings actually allow 27.7 points per game, uncharacteristic for a Mike Zimmer-coached team. Minnesota has given up fewer than 20 points in a single game just once this season.

That takes us to our play on this game. Jacksonville has lost 10 straight home games and is 3-6 ATS in its last nine. U.S. Bank Stadium has been very good to Over bettors over the past two seasons. The Total has gone Over in seven straight Vikings home games.

With these two defenses and a pretty good Minnesota offense, expect both teams to put up points and the Total to go Over.

NFL Free Pick:  OVER 52

Check out our last pick, it was a Cowboys at Eagles betting preview and pick.

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