Super Bowl LIII - Patriots Vs. Rams, Betting the Point Spread
Not only is this years Super Bowl going to be a fun one to watch, it's going to be a great one to bet on. Once again, the Patriots are back on the big stage and the question is, can they avoid losing as they did to the Eagles last year? Many say the Eagles were hot at the right time and they struck when it mattered and caught the Patriots off guard. Maybe this is true or quite possibly, the NFC has figured out how to beat this team.
When: 6:30 PM ET, Sunday, February 3rd, 2019
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta Georgia
Current Line: Rams + 2.5 | Money Line +120 | Patriots - 2.5 | Money Line -140 | O/U 57.5
TV Coverage: CBS
Once again, the odds makers have the Patriots as the favorite and we are guessing that as long as Tom Brady shows up, his team will always be the favorite. The important thing is this; the Patriots lost five games this past season and the Rams lost 3. What was in the five losses that made the difference for the winning teams?
Rule Number One: Don't overhype the game. The game itself must be played. The media will do their job when it comes to hype and overhype it they always do. Don't buy into all of that. For the players, this is a football game. Of course it's the biggest stage that they can hope to be on and of course, it's the biggest game of their lives. The one's that haven't been there before will be a bit nervous, there will be some butterflies, this is to be expected, but once that kickoff is booted and the first play from scrimmage goes off; it's on!
The Jaguars, Lions, Titans, Dolphins and Steelers, all got it right against the Patriots this past season. Here was the reoccurring theme -2 touchdowns or less. Other than the Dolphins game, which ended at 34-33 and on a fluke play at the end - the Patriots were held to not more than 2 touchdowns for the game and in three of the losses, they were held to 10 points. The key to beating the Patriots is one thing, getting after Brady, upsetting his rhythm and making him play from behind the entire game and not just the first half.
The Patriots are scoring 27 points per game and allowing just 20 per game. The Rams are scoring 32 points per game and allowing 24. The numbers come out in the wash with the Rams having a 1 point advantage.
The Difference Maker: The Rams have just enough defense to keep the Patriots on their toes. We don't think that Brady has any kind of deer in the headlights moment, he's been in this game 8 times before and he has seen it all. We do believe that the Rams will give Brady enough problems in the first half (as they always do against any opponent) to keep them close or even ahead. The one thing we know beyond a certainty is this; the Rams are not the Atlanta Falcons, and they will not give up 25 unanswered points.
This game will be ever so close and will go to the last second of play with the Rams most likely in the lead and the Patriots driving. This one comes down to a last second field goal or a touchdown to go ahead by 1 or tie. The Rams look to be the Value bet against the point spread.
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